Solar photovoltaic costs have fallen by 90% in the last decade, onshore wind by 70%, and batteries by more than 90%. These technologies have followed a “learning curve” called Wright's Law.
Are solar PV projects reducing the cost of electricity in 2022?
Between 2022 and 2023, utility-scale solar PV projects showed the most significant decrease (by 12%). For newly commissioned onshore wind projects, the global weighted average LCOE fell by 3% year-on-year; whilst for offshore wind, the cost of electricity of new projects decreased by 7% compared to 2022.
Is the cost of UK solar PV electricity decreasing over time?
From our results below, it is clear that the cost of UK solar PV electricity is quickly decreasing over time, across all PV system sizes for both approaches used. Although the cost decrease is slowing down over time, it is still very significant, even in the last several years.
The report, titled The Power to Change: Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025, suggests that solar – nurtured by the right regulatory frameworks and policy – can achieve huge reductions in cost over the next decade, bringing the global average price per kilowatt hour (kWh) to between $0.05 - $0.06.
Nonetheless, rapid price declines in solar PV have not been without controversy. China, for example, has played an outsized role in scaling up the mass production of solar PV cells and modules, comprising 78% of global production in 2021 9, 10 (Fig. 1).
The cost of PV electricity is currently at about 149 ₤/MWh for the smallest-scale and 51 ₤/MWh for large-scale PV systems, already lower than the wholesale price of electricity, with PV systems predicted to get cheaper by 40%–50% until 2035.
How do we estimate learning rates for solar PV modules?
Using nation-specific, component-level price data and global PV installation and silicon price data, we estimate learning rates for solar PV modules in the three largest solar-deploying countries (China, Germany and the United States) between 2006 and 2020 using a two-factor learning model.